Wednesday, June 28, 2006

Epistle to the Colossians


In the robust spring of AD 57 (or perhaps, some scholars think, 62), Paul penned letters from the state pen. in Rome to his buddies in Colossae in order to counteract what he considered the false teachings of Eastern mysticism and asceticism. I find no more appropriate an occasion to re-enact what P-Diddy did than prior to tonight's impending NBA draft.

Like most of Paul's epistles, this address consists of a doctrinal and a practical. Unlike Big P's grandstanding (not to mention that of every other mock draft and sportswriter out there), however, I'm gonna write letters to my friends (see PRACTICAL below) who have a stake in tonight's events. Namely, basketball fans. Let the games begin.


DOCTRINAL

1. Need. The Need for Speed.
2. Know Your Window
3. Dynamite in '07 If You Blow It Up Now

#1: Draft for Need. Period. Too often teams attempt to take "the best player available" only to stash them behind capable starters of the same position and lose them in subsequent free agencies. Jermaine O'Neal behind Rasheed Wallace, for example. Marvin Williams in the crowded swingland of Atlanta, for another. On the one hand you lose a potential franchise player because he gets no minutes. On the other hand, you miss out on Chris Paul, a franchise level PG whom the Hawks passed up in deference to Royal Ivy. Draft for need.

Additionally, realize that You Need Speed. The Dawning of the New NBA is no fluke--David Stern's Cheney-esque subtle yet ingenius manipulation of the officiating handbook in the summer of 2004 has created a league dominated by quicker, more agile players as opposed to the old logic of 'drafting for size' or 'you can't coach height'. More appropriately: YOU CAN'T COACH QUICK. And quick will get you everywhere. Ask Mike D'Antoni and Avery Johnson.

#2: Know Your Window. Every GM should ask himself: When will my team be ready to compete? If the answer is NOW, draft appropriately. If the answer is IT'LL BE A WHILE, do likewise. For instance, the Suns are desperately trying to move Shawn Marion for an equally effective yet cheaper piece to their puzzle, Rashard Lewis. While the Seattle swingman plays 10% the defense the Matrix does, he will spread the floor better for a returning Stoudemire and allow Phoenix the flexibility to re-sign their new diamond in the rough, Boris Diaw. Plus, they can swing the #10 pick away from the Sonics in order to infuse their swing position with athleticism and either deadly speed (Rodney Carney) or excellent defense and passing (Ronnie Brewer) to study under Raja Bell. Meanwhile, Seattle is prime bait for this trade because they need to energize their fanbase, and Shawn will do the trick. Both clubs are sensitive to their window for success and what success entails.



#3: This follows #2 logically -- if you aren't ready to compete right now, the best possible thing you can do for your franchise is blow it up. The draft class of 2007 is perhaps even deeper and more promising than the unfathomable success of 2003. If your team is ill-equipped to rise to or near the top this fall (I'm talking to you Knicks, Sixers, Blazers, Pacers--Charlotte, Toronto, you're doing fine), use this draft to enhance your prospects for the future. More teams are willing to trade up, down or out of this draft for two reasons:

-- No surefire prospects, but many decent ones
-- Weak Free Agent Market

This makes for lots of trades, lots of moves, and the potential to mortgage the now for the later. And when Greg Oden is sitting in the pot at the end of the 15-67 rainbow, well...drop everything and find you a leprechaun.




Dear Tibet (yes, this is my friend's name) --

As an MA native, you've understood the Truth for some time now: there are no easy Asnwers. But I truly admire what Danny Ainge is doing--building. Finding the right man for the job at each position to grow a team with experience, chemistry, and the talent to contend. The proported Allen Iverson trade may be the union of all three of my drafting Doctrines: a perimeter-foccused offense realizing Paul Pierce and Allen Iverson are both in their prime and Billy King opting to blow up the storied 76ers rather than see his aging superstar get even more banged up with no return in sight. Who Boston gives up will be key--Sczerbiak is a given, but Philly will need a little more to swweten the pot. DA will have to part with one of his prized pups (Jefferson & Green) or a tasty 2007 pick. Let's hope for your sake he gets away with just moving Tony Allen--that's a Tommy Point! This would leave the C's of 06 looking like this:

G Allen Iverson / Sebastian Telfair
G Gerald Green / Delonte West
F Paul Pierce
F Al Jefferson / Ryan Gomes
C Perk / Ratliff

Dear Parker --

What can I say? Ben Gordon is a tweener (see yesterday's post). No matter how much you love Pax, he's gonna have to make the tough decision: trade Gordon now, or lose him later. Garnett might be on the table. I truly hope they don't ship the #2 for Marion, even if it means getting rid of Chandler's bloated contract. Make the #2 Brandon Roy and the #16 Saer Sene. I would love to watch those Bulls. Some whitey's in the Windy City might love Adam Morrison, especially if he could play SG, and that may well be the outcome tonight. In any case, you guys still have New York's pick for next year, so there's really no way to mess this up.

Unless you take Aldridge. Please god leave hiim for the Blazers...

G Kirk Hinrich / Chris Duhon
G Ben Gordon / Thabo Sefeloshahahaha
F Luol Deng / Andres Noccioni
F Tyrus Thomas / Mike Sweetney
C Tyson Chandler

Dear Livia --

I know you still have a Charles Smith jersey from the 1994 playoffs. It won't change the Knicks. I actually believe Isaih will coach the team well. There are two guys I would grab if I'm New York: Kyle Lowry and Alexander Johnson. Lowry is a courageous, scrappy competitor at the point and would be a huge boom for their heartless backcourt. AJ is a rebounding monster ala Dennis Rodman himself, and who wouldn't want the Worm in Orange and Blue? They'll probably take Shawn Williams at #21, though. Silly Knicks.

I'd also move Channing Frye--since you can't have two soft bigs in the middle and Eddy Curry is the "franchise" "player"--and the 07 pick (that the Bulls can swap for)--and an expiring contract (Jalen Rose?) to Denver for Kenyon Martin. They'd do it in a heartbeat. And you might even sniff the playoffs...


G Starbury / Nate Robinson
G Stevie Franchise / J Crawford
F Shawne Williams / David Lee
F Kenyon Martin / A. Johnson
C Eddy Curry / Jerome James

Ooh, it's almost 7:30! (Who watches the draft live?!?) More to come...

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Who’s Afraid of the #1 Pick?

It's no wonder GM's are trading out of the top of this draft like their life depended on it -- it's scary on the top. The ghosts of drafts past haunt the decision makers of Wednesday...

2001 Kwame Brown
1998 Michael Olowokandi
1995 Joe Smith
1980 Joe Barry Carroll
1956 Sihugo Green, drafted by Rochester over Bill Russell

What will 2007 hold? Andrea Bargnani and particularly Lamarcus Aldridge have the potential to be such picks. In a more dangerous way than Patrick O’Bryant’s Olowokandi-oozing potential, Aldridge’s tip-toes a precipitously fine line between the heights of MONCB (Myth of the Next Chris Bosh) and the abysmal depths of Mark Blountitude. Nowitzki and Tskitisivili are the popular poles Bargnani is thought capable of.



Many consider Brandon Roy (and even Randy Foye) the surest thing in the draft—but no one believes they could go to the head of the class.

Rudy Gaye is unanimously touted for his peerless (save perhaps Bargnani) potential; he is also consistently second-guessed for his as of yet inconsistent drive to be great. Adam Morrison doubtlessly has the epitome of this drive, but his lack of defense/foot speed could render him a hyped-up Sczerbiak/Dunlevy instead of a poor man’s Larry Legend.

So to place the present in context:

2002: Yao Ming
2003: LeBron James
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2006: ???

Toronto hasn’t relinquished it’s hold of the top spot yet—and they might not before their 5 minutes to select is up. I’ll tell you right now who they should take—Morrison. Since no player in the top 7 is head-over-shoulders better than the rest, take the most coveted player available. That gives you the best chance to trade down for the player you truly want (Bargnani or Foye) and pick up assets in the exchange. Teams like Charlotte, Portland, Minnesota, and Seattle are desperate for a new face of the franchise, an identity fans and players alike can rally around. The other top prospects are raw, foreign, undersized, uninspired, gutless, or a combination of the above. And even if you have to keep him, he’ll fit nicely into a Colangelo-constructed up-tempo team.



Be afraid if they choose anyone else, Raptors fans. Because you’ll probably be stuck with ‘em.

The Trouble with Tweeners



Sorry, Ben. Secret's out.

Despite going 9-for-9 from downtown to tie Latrell “Chokehold” Sprewell’s NBA record.Ben “The Microwave” Gordon was repeatedly left off the list each time Bill “Hyperbole” Walton named the players that would be Chicago’s young core of the future. And, as painful as it is for me to admit it, this time Uncle Bill has a point.

Tweeners are players who’s offensive skills set doesn’t correspond to the positions they can guard on defense. This is not to be confused with your multipositional player who can play more than one role on O and then hustle back to guard guys of varying size and speed. For instance, Shawn Marion is multipositional rather than a tweener: he can play both forward spots on offense while defending opposing 2’s, 3’s and 4’s. Versatility is an advantage.

Tweeners like Gordon, on the other hand, are a liability. They play one position when attacking yet must defend a smaller or slower position on the other end. As a sixth man, Gordon is elite—as a starter he struggles against starting SG’s. And as the third overall pick, he will insist on starter’s money when his contract is up. And Paxson will be hard pressed to commit his starting 2 slot to a guy the size of Derek Fisher who can’t defend, rebound, or play the point like him.

There are three ways a tweener can start in this league—learn the offensive skills your size/speed dictates, learn to defend bigger guys, or get surrounded with complimentary multipositional players.

Take Iverson. An incredibly talented 6’ shooting guard can score on offense and guard the one spot IF he has a big PG like Eric Snow who will gladly set the table on O and D up the opposing team’s two. When Eric Snow left town, AI had to develop point skills—he had to start (fan favorite, starter’s money) but would force the coach to either play a PG next to him thus hurting their defense, or no PG at all thus hurting their offense.

Gordon’s biggest obstacle to resigning for big cash is Hinrich. Though not quite as talented, Kirk can start as an NBA point guard and has the versatility to adequately guard the two position also. Starting the two of them in the backcourt seems unwise, so unless BG can accept his electrifying backup role, greener pastures will likely offer him green.



As the draft draws near, we still hear both management and fanbase from the Windy City declaring two clear needs -- low-post scoring, and a big two-guard. Unless Benny thinks he's ousting Kirk as the starting point, he must realize this is an endictment on him.

The solution? There's a native Chicagoan who is ultra-competative, has prototype size, and whose franchise desperately needs an infusion of youth and draft choices. Could Kevin Garnett be a Bull by summer's end? Possibly. Should Kevin McHale trade his superstar in order to rejuvinate his franchise with flailing youth just in time to earn the near-mythical #1 pick of the 2007 draft? Absolutely. Will it happen?



No way. But just for fun, this is what it would look like:

CHI sends Ben Gordon, Malik Allen, their 2006 #2 pick, and their 2007 1rst round pick (via NYK) to
MIN for Kevin Garnett and Ricky Davis

BULLS
Kirk Hinrich / Chris Duhon
Ricky Davis / #16 Ronnie Brewer
Luel Deng / Andres Noccioni
Kevin Garnett
Tyson Changler

WOLVES
Ben Gordon
Randy Foye
Adam Morrison
+ two shots at Greg Oden